Fifth Consecutive Year of Drought Forecast for Horn of Africa

The World Meteorological Organization warns millions of people in the greater Horn of Africa will likely face a fifth consecutive season of insufficient rains. According to the U.N. weather agency the terrible four-year long drought in the Horn of Africa is set to continue for another year.

World Meteorological Organization spokeswoman Claire Nullis says the seasonal climate outlook for the region, which was issued Thursday, bears bad news for millions of people who already have suffered the longest drought in 40 years.

“The predictions show high chances of drier than average conditions across most parts of the region. In particular, the drought affected areas of Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia are expected to receive significantly below rainfall until the end of the year.”

The WMO notes the October to December season contributes up to 70 percent of the annual total rainfall in the equatorial parts of the greater Horn of Africa, particularly in eastern Kenya. It says the lack of rain is likely to extend to parts of Eritrea, most of Uganda and Tanzania.

Last month humanitarian agencies and the regional bloc IGAD issued an alarming report about the growing number of people suffering from acute hunger in the region.

World Food Program spokesman Tomson Phiri says drought is not a new phenomenon in the Horn of Africa. However, he says what is happening now is more severe and is occurring with greater frequency.

“Hunger and malnutrition is worsening across all drought-affected areas. And there is a very real risk of famine in Somalia”, says Phiri. “I think this is well documented. This is on the record. It is in the public domain…No one has called for a famine now, but it does not mean it may not be declared in the coming months. It is very much a real threat.”

U.N agencies estimate more than 50 million people in the greater Horn of Africa suffer from acute food insecurity. The director of the WMO’s regional climate center for East Africa, Guleid Artan, warns the region is on the brink of an unprecedented humanitarian catastrophe.

Source: Voice of America

WMO: Greater Horn of Africa drought forecast to continue for fifth year

As millions of people in the Greater Horn of Africa have already “suffered the longest drought in 40 years,” parts of the region are bracing for a fifth consecutive failed rainy season, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has reported.

The forecast for October to December, issued at the Greater Horn of Africa Seasonal Climate Outlook Forum, shows high chances of drier than average conditions across most parts of the region, which will further worsen the crisis for millions of people.

“It pains me to be the bearer of bad news,” said Guleid Artan, Director of the?Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) – WMO’s climate centre for East Africa.

We are entering the 5th consecutive failed rainy season – IGAD official

“Sadly, our models show with a high degree of confidence that we are entering the fifth consecutive failed rainy season in the Horn of Africa”.

Raising the alarm

Last month, IGAD and humanitarian agencies raised the alarm that over 50 million people in the region are suffering from acute food insecurity this year.

“In Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia, we are on the brink of an unprecedented humanitarian catastrophe,” continued Mr. Artan, noting that significantly less rainfall totals are expected until the end of the year.

The severity of the situation was echoed by IGAD Executive Secretary Workneh Gebeyehu, who made a solemn call to national governments, donors, humanitarian, and development actors to “adopt a no-regret strategy and help us weather the worst of this crisis”.

Rainfall deficits

Rainfall from October to December contributes up to 70 per cent of the annual total in the equatorial parts of the Greater Horn of Africa, particularly in eastern Kenya.?

However, the start of the rainy season is likely to be delayed across much of the eastern parts of the region, triggering rainfall deficits.

The exceptional drought underlines the vulnerability of the region to climate-related risks, which are expected to intensify because of climate change.

Early warning initiative

Against the backdrop that hydrometerological and early warning services (EWS) can potentially reduce negative impacts, WMO revealed the launch of a new $5.2 million project to better enable regional and national entities to produce and use these services.

Project Activities will be centered around supporting EWS regional services and strengthening regional coordination and cooperation for these and climate services.

Support for regional centres to provide hydromet products and services will in turn contribute to strengthening the capacities of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services, according to WMO.

Ethiopia, Somalia, and Sudan

Moreover, the project will also provide technical support to Ethiopia, Somalia, and Sudan by building upon and leveraging ongoing and pipeline investment projects implemented or financed by WMO, the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, and the World Bank.

In Ethiopia, activities will support providing electricity to “last mile” poor households in rural areas through a performance-based subsidy to the State-owned utility company.

They will also provide communities with actionable EWS, ensure early actions, and develop demand-driven climate and early warning information services.

In Somalia, activities will focus on developing and delivering priority public hydromet services; and in Sudan, they will focus on strengthening community involvement in EWS and?strengthening flood early warning services.

Source: United Nations

Ukraine: Top UN aid official appeals for access across contact line

Speaking from Kharkiv in northeast Ukraine, where shelling has intensified in the last week, the UN’s top aid official in the country issued an urgent appeal on Friday for guarantees from Russia and affiliated forces, to allow humanitarians to deliver “absolutely necessary” relief items across the contact line.

“Winter is coming,…[and] all we want to do [is] provide insulin to the hospitals, provide blankets, provide mattresses…it’s not complicated”, said Denise Brown, the Resident Coordinator for the UN in Ukraine.

She is currently on a three-day mission?to eastern and central Ukraine (Kryivyi Rih, Kharkiv and Dnipro) to assess the humanitarian situation first-hand.?

‘Constant’ negotiations

Ms. Brown told reporters in Geneva that the UN was “constantly negotiating” for access, “up and down” the line that divides those fighting the war stemming from Russia’s invasion on the 24 February, in the south and east.

Ms. Brown also said that she had no way of confirming what relief items, “if anything”, Russia had reportedly sent to non-Government-controlled areas. Aid organizations “just have no reliable way of crossing the frontline”.

But she said that she was “hopeful that the Russian Federation will provide the security guarantees that we require to go across”.

So far they have “reached less than a million people in the non-government controlled areas” and she warned, “if farmers can’t reach their land, that’s going to have a huge impact on their economic situation.”

Fearful winter ahead

The UN aid coordinator also warned that winter is fast approaching in Ukraine and that she did not believe that vulnerable communities in the east and south had what they needed to survive.

Six months since Russia’s invasion, nearly 18 million people, around 40 per cent of the country’s entire population, need humanitarian aid.

Many elderly people were living in damaged houses and the lack of access to gas or electricity in large parts of the east “could be a matter of life or death” if people could not heat their homes, Mrs. Brown said in a statement.

Regarding OCHA’s plans for winter, Mrs. Brown explained, “we will have to work differently …we can only assume” that people caught in a war “do not have what is necessary to make it through,” the season, “which starts early and lasts long”.

Humanitarian community delivering

On a positive note, the Humanitarian Coordinator pointed out that the war has not prevented the humanitarian community from delivering: “Since the start of the war, we’ve reached over 12 million people,” providing “cash transfers, health care, shelter… access to clean water, protection, rehabilitation”.

Agricultural production is also “now finally moving” due to the UN-brokered Black Sea Grain initiative.?This “will have an impact on families, on farmers and their communities and on the food insecure, particularly in the Horn of Africa right now,” she added.

Having met people uprooted by the war, Mrs. Brown said “morale and hope was still there”. While internally displaced people told her they are grateful for support from the UN and NGOs, they “still want to go home”.

Source: United Nations

Monkeypox: Global cases dropped last week – WHO

GENEVA— Monkeypox cases fell by a fifth last week as infections in Europe dropped but the outbreak is going through “intense transmission” in the Americas, the World Health Organization said.

The WHO sounded the alarm for Latin America in particular, pointing to a lack of awareness and public health measures to control the spread of the virus.

A surge in monkeypox infections has been reported since early May outside the African countries where it has long been endemic.

The WHO triggered its highest level of alarm on July 24, classifying it as a public health emergency of international concern, alongside COVID-19.

There have been 45,355 cases and 15 deaths this year, across at least 96 countries, according to the WHO’s dashboard.

After four consecutive weeks of increase, the number of monkeypox cases newly reported dropped by 21 per cent last week compared to the previous seven days, from 5,907 to 5,213.

“In the early stages of the outbreak, most reported cases were in Europe, with a smaller proportion in the Americas,” WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus told a press conference.

“That has now reversed, with less than 40 per cent of reported cases in Europe and 60 per cent in the Americas,” which is going through a steep rise, he said.

“There are signs that the outbreak is slowing in Europe, where a combination of effective public health measures, behaviour change and vaccination are helping to prevent transmission.

“However, in Latin America in particular, insufficient awareness or public health measures are combining with a lack of access to vaccines to fan the flames of the outbreak.”

The countries with more than a thousand cases are the United States (15,877), Spain (6,284), Brazil (3,984), Germany (3,387), Britain (3,340), France (2,889), Peru (1,207), Canada (1,206) and the Netherlands (1,136).

According to the WHO’s latest situation report issued on Thursday, some 23 countries reported an increase in the weekly number of cases. Iran and Indonesia reported their first cases in the past seven days.

Sixteen countries have not reported new cases for more than 21 days, the maximum incubation period of the disease.

Among cases with sexual orientation reported, 96 per cent identified as men who had sex with men. The median age of cases was 36.

A sexual encounter was the most commonly reported type of transmission, at 82 per cent.

“The majority of cases were likely exposed in a party setting with sexual contacts,” said the WHO.

Among cases with known HIV status, 45 per cent are HIV positive, it added.

Source: NAM NEWS NETWORK