Month: January 2023

The world will likely breach the internationally agreed-upon climate change threshold in about a decade and keep heating to break through a next warming limit around mid-century, even with big pollution cuts, artificial intelligence predicts in a new study that’s more pessimistic than previous modeling.

The study in Monday’s journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences reignites a debate on whether it’s still possible to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, as called for in the 2015 Paris climate agreement, to minimize the most damaging effects of climate change. The world has already warmed 1.1 or 1.2 degrees since pre-industrial times, or the mid-19th century, scientists say.

Two climate scientists using machine learning calculated that Earth will surpass the 1.5-degree (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) mark between 2033 and 2035. Their results fit with other, more conventional methods of predicting when Earth will break the mark, though with a bit more precision.

“There will come a time when we call the 1.5C target for maximum warming dead, beyond the shadow of a doubt,” Brown University Environment Institute director Kim Cobb, who wasn’t part of the study, said in an email interview. “And this paper may be the beginning of the end of the 1.5C target.”

Stanford University’s Noah Diffenbaugh, a study co-author, said the world is on the brink of the 1.5-degree mark in “any realistic emissions reduction scenario.” Avoiding a 2-degree rise, he said, may depend on nations meeting zero-emissions goals by the middle of this century.

The artificial intelligence-based study found it unlikely that temperature increase could be held below 2 degrees Celsius, even with tough emissions cuts. And that’s where the AI really differs with scientists who had been forecasting using computer models that are based on past observations, Diffenbaugh said.

In a high-pollution scenario, the AI calculated, the world would hit the 2-degree mark around 2050. Lower pollution could stave that off until 2054, the machine learning calculated.

In contrast, the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change figured in its 2021 report that the same lower-pollution scenario would see the world pushing past 2 degrees sometime in the 2090s.

Cornell University climate scientist Natalie Mahowald, who wasn’t part of the Diffenbaugh study but was part of the IPCC, said the study makes sense, fits with what scientists know, but seems a bit more pessimistic.

There’s a lot of power in using AI, and in the future, that may be shown to produce better projections, but more evidence is needed before concluding that, Mahowald said.

Normally, climate scientists use a bunch of computer model simulations, some running hot and some cold, and then try to figure out which ones are doing the best job. That’s often based on how they performed in the past or in simulations of the past, Diffenbaugh said. What the AI does is more keyed to the climate system now, he said.

“We’re using this very powerful tool that is able to take information and integrate it in a way that no human mind is able to do, for better or for worse,” Diffenbaugh said.

Each year, government climate negotiators at a United Nations summit proclaim that they have managed to “keep 1.5 alive.” But with the latest study, there’s a divide among scientists on how true that really is. Diffenbaugh said there’s been so much warming already that it really doesn’t matter how pollution is cut in the next several years. The world will hit 1.5, the AI figures.

Zeke Hausfather of the tech company Stripe and Berkeley Earth, who was not part of the study, agreed, saying it’s time to “stop pretending” that limiting warming to 1.5 degrees is possible. Some scenarios do see temperatures warming past the mark but then coming back down, something called “overshoot.”

Other scientists not involved with the study, such as University of Pennsylvania’s Michael Mann and Climate Analytics’ Bill Hare and Carl-Friedrich Schleussner maintain 1.5 is still alive. They say one rapid decarbonization scenario that Diffenbaugh didn’t examine shows the world can mostly keep under the threshold.

If the world can cut its carbon emissions in half by 2030 “then warming can be limited to 1.5 degrees” with a tiny overshoot and then reductions to get under the mark, Hare said.

Believing that the world can no longer keep warming below 1.5 “is a self-fulfilling prophecy,” Mann said by email. “In the end it’s easy to overinterpret the significance of a precise threshold like 1.5C warming. The challenge is to limit warming as much as possible.”

Source: Voice of America

Animal products such as beef, fish, poultry and dairy are heavily featured in many traditional African dishes. Some environmental and animal welfare advocates are hoping to change that by introducing plant-based dining to the continent.

Staff at Senegal’s first and only fully vegan restaurant, Casa Teranga, cook up local West African dishes such as mafe and yassa. But instead of the traditional ingredients of beef and chicken, they use chickpeas, black eyed peas, cassava and a colorful array of veggies.

The Dakar eatery is one of 15 in Senegal that participated in the recent Africa Vegan Restaurant Week, the first event of its kind on the continent. To qualify, participating restaurants were required to offer at least one vegan option on their menus.

Supporters of vegan eating say it’s one of the most impactful actions individuals can take to stop abusive animal agriculture practices and to fight climate change.

The phasing out of animal agriculture over the next 15 years would result in a 68 percent reduction in carbon dioxide emissions through the year 2100, according to a 2022 study.

Research also shows vegan diets can lower blood pressure and cholesterol and reduce rates of heart disease.

Dakar native Bashir Niang owns Casa Teranga with his wife. Although the restaurant is extremely popular among expats, he said it’s been difficult to convince his family, friends and other locals of the benefits of veganism.

“In the beginning, they can think that you’re crazy,” Niang said. “They can’t imagine food without meat, fish or chicken. But I make a vegan version of mafe and they really appreciate it. They are happy; they say it’s really tasty.”

Veganism

Animal products are ubiquitous in traditional Senegalese cuisine. The national dish, thieboudieune, a rice and fish platter, is often eaten for lunch and dinner.

Many locals see veganism and vegetarianism as a Western import that does not align with their culture.

“Veganism is not African,” said Mour Mbenge, owner of Surf Black and White, a surf rental shop and roadside cafe in Dakar.

Like many Senegalese, Mbengue comes from a long line of fishermen and was raised on fish.

“God created animals to be eaten so we can survive,” he said. “Just like in nature, the big fish eat the small fish.”

Furthermore, as inflation has pushed many items out of reach for Senegal’s low-income population, he says thieboudieune has become the only dish many can afford.

“Without thieboudieune, we’d have a hard time getting by because everything else is too expensive,” Mbengue said. “Even thieboudieune is becoming more expensive.”

Overfishing along the West African coast has depleted fish stocks, causing prices to increase. Studies show that those that are left risk being contaminated with high levels of microplastics and heavy metals.

Anna Touré is the founder of Globisis, a nonprofit that fights climate change, and the Senegal coordinator for Vegan Restaurant Week.

A Franco-Malian, she maintains that veganism is not a Western concept reserved for the rich – rather, there are many vegan protein sources that are local to the region and have been relied on for generations.

“Eating black-eyed peas is much cheaper than eating meat, chicken or fish, which most of the Senegalese people can’t afford any longer,” Touré said. “We are lucky enough to have everything in Senegal that can fit a plant-based diet.”

Nuts, grains, and vegetables are all grown locally, Touré said, as are healthy specialties such as baobab fruit and moringa.

Nabaasa Innocent is the Africa coordinator for Vegan Restaurant Week and founder of the Uganda Vegan Society. Historically, she says, African cuisines were plant-based and meat was reserved for special occasions.

“But when the word ‘vegan’ comes in they try to Westernize it,” Innocent said. “So that’s why we’re bringing it back home to Africa. So, it’s not an import and my appeal to Africans is for us to embrace this practice.”

Across the continent, more than 50 restaurants in at least 20 countries took part in the event.

Source: Voice of America

GENEVA —

The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies warns the world is dangerously unprepared for the next pandemic and this will have severe health, economic and social consequences for countries around the world. The IFRC has just released this year’s World Disaster Report.

In a marked departure from previous reports, the IFRC does not delve into the numerous natural disasters that caused untold devastation last year. It does not rank the severity of disasters such as earthquakes, floods, and drought in terms of deaths and the destruction of livelihoods and infrastructure.

Instead, the report focuses on the global crisis unleashed by the COVID-19 pandemic and on warnings of worse calamities to come if the global community does not prepare now for the next health crisis.

IFRC Secretary General Jagan Chapagain said the authors of the report conclude the coronavirus pandemic has been the biggest disaster in our living memory, by any measure.

“I think no other disasters, the hurricane, earthquake, drought, or flood can compete in terms of the terrible human and socio-economic costs. Of course, the most conservative estimates tell us that 6.5 million people died from COVID-19 across these three years. But we all know that the real number could be much, much higher,” said Chapagain.

And the financial costs, he said, are staggering. He said the International Monetary Fund estimates the cost of the pandemic over the last three years to be $13.8 trillion.

He said the COVID-19 pandemic should be a wake-up call for the global community to prepare now for the next health crisis. He notes the World Health Organization and multiple epidemiologists have warned disease outbreaks are growing more frequent.

Chapagain said these outbreaks are being driven by factors such as climate change, increased movement of goods and services, urbanization, as well as growing inequity. He said success in tackling future health crises depends upon building trust among world leaders, within and between communities and countries.

“Without trust, lifesaving pandemic counter measures will not be accepted and implemented by the people who need them most. Preparedness will require equity. Our preparedness must include provisions for greater equity because public health emergencies will thrive on and aggravate existing inequities,” he said.

Chapagain said community-based organizations are an integral part of pandemic preparedness and response. He said local actors and communities have important roles to play as frontline responders in all phases of disease outbreak management.

He notes IFRC staff, and its global network of volunteers have reached more than 1.1 billion people over the past three years and helped to keep them safe from the virus.

Source: Voice of America

Abstract

This paper describes the process for developing, validating and disseminating through a train-the-trainer (TOT) event a standardised curriculum for public health capacity building for points of entry (POE) staff across the 15-member state Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) that reflects both international standards and national guidelines.

A five-phase process was used in developing the curriculum: phase (1) assessment of existing materials developed by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Africa CDC and the West African Economic and Monetary Union, (2) design of retained and new, harmonised content, (3) validation by the national leadership to produce final content, (4) implementation of the harmonised curriculum during a regional TOT, and (5) evaluation of the curriculum.

Of the nine modules assessed in English and French, the technical team agreed to retain six harmonised modules providing materials for 10 days of intensive training. Following the TOT, most participants (n=28/30, 93.3%) indicated that the International Health Regulations and emergency management modules were relevant to their work and 96.7% (n=29/30) reported that the training should be cascaded to POE staff in their countries.

The ECOWAS harmonised POE curriculum provides a set of training materials and expectations for national port health and POE staff to use across the region. This initiative contributes to reducing the effort required by countries to identify emergency preparedness and response capacity-building tools for border health systems in the Member States in a highly connected region.

Source: British Medical Journal

DAKAR— The Dakar 2 Feed Africa Summit ended with a $30 billion pledge by the African Development Bank (AfDB) and development partners to finance food and agribusiness on the continent in the next five years.

Of the amount announced at the summit held in the Senegalese capital, the AfDB pledged to mobilize $10 billion.

Leaders who attended the event called on the African Union Commission and the AfDB to help mobilize more funding to top up the amount announced and report on the overall investment at the February African Union Summit.

Some 34 African heads of state and government, leaders of international and bilateral development organizations, and the private sector attended the in Summit, whose theme was “Feed Africa: Food Sovereignty and Resilience”.

Concerned that rising food prices and disruption in global food supply due to Covid-19, climate change, and the war in Ukraine will worsen food insecurity in Africa, and noting that the continent has 65 percent of the world’s remaining uncultivated arable land — with the potential to produce enough to feed its people and the rest of the world — the leaders mooted national food and agriculture delivery compacts to embed food targets in their development agenda.

Among the resolutions was the establishment of Presidential Delivery Councils to oversee the implementation of the country-specific compacts and promote accountability.

AfDB President Dr. Akinwumi Adesina said that Africa’s agriculture sector will depend on strong political will and commitment of governments, development partners, and the private sector and the scaling up of highly impactful continental programs such as the Technologies for African Agricultural Transformation.

He emphasized the place of infrastructure in transforming rural areas into agricultural production and processing zones.

“Infrastructure is very important and Africa has a deficit of $68 billion to $108 billion per year. The African Development Bank has in the past six years invested $44 billion in infrastructure: from power to roads, to water, to sanitation, to digital infrastructure, to transport corridors to one-stop border posts. But a lot of infrastructure in Africa concentrates in urban areas because the economic viability of infrastructure is low in the rural areas because they’re a source of livelihood — agriculture — is not viable. But we have special agro-industrial processing zones. These are going to change the density of infrastructure in rural areas around agriculture, power water, roads, irrigation storage, and logistics.

“It will make agricultural processing and value addition profitable, close to where the food is produced. So, you don’t need to move raw materials; you will move finished agricultural products,” Adesina said.

He said the bank has in the past two years invested $1 billion on 23 projects in special agro-industrial processing zones in 11 countries.

Participants sought support for agriculture-based small and medium enterprises (SMEs), burdened with an unmet financing need of about $100 billion annually.

The AfDB and the government of Canada announced the Agri-SME Catalytic Financing Mechanism, a blended finance facility that is expected to de-risk investment into small and medium agri-businesses and strengthen food systems across the continent.

With an initial contribution of $85 million from the Canadian government, the Mechanism will provide concessional finance and technical assistance to financial intermediaries, including agribusinesses, commercial banks, micro-finance institutions, and impact funds.

The summit also saw the launch of Mission 1 for 200, a joint program of the AfDB and the International Fund for Agricultural Development to help 40 million African farmers to produce 100 million tonnes of food for 200 million people.

Mission 1 for 200 is meant to build resilience by helping farmers adapt to climate change and reduce agriculture’s environmental impact and emissions.

Source: NAM NEWS NETWORK