Day: January 30, 2023

The world will likely breach the internationally agreed-upon climate change threshold in about a decade and keep heating to break through a next warming limit around mid-century, even with big pollution cuts, artificial intelligence predicts in a new study that’s more pessimistic than previous modeling.

The study in Monday’s journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences reignites a debate on whether it’s still possible to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, as called for in the 2015 Paris climate agreement, to minimize the most damaging effects of climate change. The world has already warmed 1.1 or 1.2 degrees since pre-industrial times, or the mid-19th century, scientists say.

Two climate scientists using machine learning calculated that Earth will surpass the 1.5-degree (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) mark between 2033 and 2035. Their results fit with other, more conventional methods of predicting when Earth will break the mark, though with a bit more precision.

“There will come a time when we call the 1.5C target for maximum warming dead, beyond the shadow of a doubt,” Brown University Environment Institute director Kim Cobb, who wasn’t part of the study, said in an email interview. “And this paper may be the beginning of the end of the 1.5C target.”

Stanford University’s Noah Diffenbaugh, a study co-author, said the world is on the brink of the 1.5-degree mark in “any realistic emissions reduction scenario.” Avoiding a 2-degree rise, he said, may depend on nations meeting zero-emissions goals by the middle of this century.

The artificial intelligence-based study found it unlikely that temperature increase could be held below 2 degrees Celsius, even with tough emissions cuts. And that’s where the AI really differs with scientists who had been forecasting using computer models that are based on past observations, Diffenbaugh said.

In a high-pollution scenario, the AI calculated, the world would hit the 2-degree mark around 2050. Lower pollution could stave that off until 2054, the machine learning calculated.

In contrast, the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change figured in its 2021 report that the same lower-pollution scenario would see the world pushing past 2 degrees sometime in the 2090s.

Cornell University climate scientist Natalie Mahowald, who wasn’t part of the Diffenbaugh study but was part of the IPCC, said the study makes sense, fits with what scientists know, but seems a bit more pessimistic.

There’s a lot of power in using AI, and in the future, that may be shown to produce better projections, but more evidence is needed before concluding that, Mahowald said.

Normally, climate scientists use a bunch of computer model simulations, some running hot and some cold, and then try to figure out which ones are doing the best job. That’s often based on how they performed in the past or in simulations of the past, Diffenbaugh said. What the AI does is more keyed to the climate system now, he said.

“We’re using this very powerful tool that is able to take information and integrate it in a way that no human mind is able to do, for better or for worse,” Diffenbaugh said.

Each year, government climate negotiators at a United Nations summit proclaim that they have managed to “keep 1.5 alive.” But with the latest study, there’s a divide among scientists on how true that really is. Diffenbaugh said there’s been so much warming already that it really doesn’t matter how pollution is cut in the next several years. The world will hit 1.5, the AI figures.

Zeke Hausfather of the tech company Stripe and Berkeley Earth, who was not part of the study, agreed, saying it’s time to “stop pretending” that limiting warming to 1.5 degrees is possible. Some scenarios do see temperatures warming past the mark but then coming back down, something called “overshoot.”

Other scientists not involved with the study, such as University of Pennsylvania’s Michael Mann and Climate Analytics’ Bill Hare and Carl-Friedrich Schleussner maintain 1.5 is still alive. They say one rapid decarbonization scenario that Diffenbaugh didn’t examine shows the world can mostly keep under the threshold.

If the world can cut its carbon emissions in half by 2030 “then warming can be limited to 1.5 degrees” with a tiny overshoot and then reductions to get under the mark, Hare said.

Believing that the world can no longer keep warming below 1.5 “is a self-fulfilling prophecy,” Mann said by email. “In the end it’s easy to overinterpret the significance of a precise threshold like 1.5C warming. The challenge is to limit warming as much as possible.”

Source: Voice of America

Animal products such as beef, fish, poultry and dairy are heavily featured in many traditional African dishes. Some environmental and animal welfare advocates are hoping to change that by introducing plant-based dining to the continent.

Staff at Senegal’s first and only fully vegan restaurant, Casa Teranga, cook up local West African dishes such as mafe and yassa. But instead of the traditional ingredients of beef and chicken, they use chickpeas, black eyed peas, cassava and a colorful array of veggies.

The Dakar eatery is one of 15 in Senegal that participated in the recent Africa Vegan Restaurant Week, the first event of its kind on the continent. To qualify, participating restaurants were required to offer at least one vegan option on their menus.

Supporters of vegan eating say it’s one of the most impactful actions individuals can take to stop abusive animal agriculture practices and to fight climate change.

The phasing out of animal agriculture over the next 15 years would result in a 68 percent reduction in carbon dioxide emissions through the year 2100, according to a 2022 study.

Research also shows vegan diets can lower blood pressure and cholesterol and reduce rates of heart disease.

Dakar native Bashir Niang owns Casa Teranga with his wife. Although the restaurant is extremely popular among expats, he said it’s been difficult to convince his family, friends and other locals of the benefits of veganism.

“In the beginning, they can think that you’re crazy,” Niang said. “They can’t imagine food without meat, fish or chicken. But I make a vegan version of mafe and they really appreciate it. They are happy; they say it’s really tasty.”

Veganism

Animal products are ubiquitous in traditional Senegalese cuisine. The national dish, thieboudieune, a rice and fish platter, is often eaten for lunch and dinner.

Many locals see veganism and vegetarianism as a Western import that does not align with their culture.

“Veganism is not African,” said Mour Mbenge, owner of Surf Black and White, a surf rental shop and roadside cafe in Dakar.

Like many Senegalese, Mbengue comes from a long line of fishermen and was raised on fish.

“God created animals to be eaten so we can survive,” he said. “Just like in nature, the big fish eat the small fish.”

Furthermore, as inflation has pushed many items out of reach for Senegal’s low-income population, he says thieboudieune has become the only dish many can afford.

“Without thieboudieune, we’d have a hard time getting by because everything else is too expensive,” Mbengue said. “Even thieboudieune is becoming more expensive.”

Overfishing along the West African coast has depleted fish stocks, causing prices to increase. Studies show that those that are left risk being contaminated with high levels of microplastics and heavy metals.

Anna Touré is the founder of Globisis, a nonprofit that fights climate change, and the Senegal coordinator for Vegan Restaurant Week.

A Franco-Malian, she maintains that veganism is not a Western concept reserved for the rich – rather, there are many vegan protein sources that are local to the region and have been relied on for generations.

“Eating black-eyed peas is much cheaper than eating meat, chicken or fish, which most of the Senegalese people can’t afford any longer,” Touré said. “We are lucky enough to have everything in Senegal that can fit a plant-based diet.”

Nuts, grains, and vegetables are all grown locally, Touré said, as are healthy specialties such as baobab fruit and moringa.

Nabaasa Innocent is the Africa coordinator for Vegan Restaurant Week and founder of the Uganda Vegan Society. Historically, she says, African cuisines were plant-based and meat was reserved for special occasions.

“But when the word ‘vegan’ comes in they try to Westernize it,” Innocent said. “So that’s why we’re bringing it back home to Africa. So, it’s not an import and my appeal to Africans is for us to embrace this practice.”

Across the continent, more than 50 restaurants in at least 20 countries took part in the event.

Source: Voice of America