Month: July 2022

Highlights

By the end of June, the early stages of the rainfall season are coming to an end. So far, the 2022 rainy season in West Africa has been characterised by variable conditions. Over the course of the month, rainfall deficits were particularly pronounced during the first dekad of June and mainly affected the Central Sahel (western Niger, north-eastern Burkina Faso, eastern Mali), central Mali, eastern Guinea, western Cote d’Ivoire, south-western Cameroon and the Lake Chad Basin. Over the course of the month of June rainfall improved and offset some of the early season deficits recorded in the westernmost parts of West Africa (Senegal, southern Mauritania, Guinea-Bissau), as well as in central Burkina Faso, central Chad and central Niger. Coastal countries including Benin, Togo, Ghana, parts of Nigeria and southern Cameroon, as well as the south-eastern parts of the region (southern Chad and CAR) benefitted from favourable rainfall conditions in June.

Over the past two (2) months (May-June 2022), the conditions reflect the patterns observed in June, with overall mixed conditions across the region. While some areas including the western (Senegal, southern Mauritania, Guinea-Bissau), southern (Ghana, Benin, Togo) and south-eastern (southern Chad, CAR, southern Cameroon) parts of the region experienced above normal rainfall, the seasonal rains were normal to below normal in the rest of West Africa. Particularly in the Central Sahel, the Lake Chad Basin, northwestern Nigeria and western Cote d’Ivoire, moderate to severe rainfall deficits were recorded during this period. While especially in the Sahelian areas these are unlikely to significantly impact the agricultural season, which usually starts a bit later, the progression of the rains in these areas will need to be monitored closely.

Vegetation conditions are below average over a wide area in the Sahel from western Mali across Burkina Faso and northern Nigeria to southern Chad. Vegetation deficits are particularly pronounced in the eastern parts of the region (in northern (Benin, Togo and Nigeria) and southern Chad). In some areas, these conditions are expected to improve due to above normal rains received in mid to late June. On the other hand, better than normal vegetation conditions can be observed in Senegal, northern Niger and Chad, where above normal rainfall was received in early June.

The short-term forecasts indicate that by early-July (10 July 2022), seasonal rainfall will likely be above average in the western part of the region (in Senegal, southern Mauritania, Guinea Bissau) as well as over western Guinea, Sierra Leone, western Liberia as well as south-eastern Cameroon and CAR. This might partially offset the rainfall deficits in the western parts of the Sahel (Senegal, southern Mauritania, and Guinea Bissau) and the lead to more favorable conditions during the early stages of the growing season.

According to the 2022 PRESASS seasonal forecast, average to above average seasonal rainfall is expected in most of the Sahelian Belt (from Senegal through to Chad), including Cabo Verde. Average to below average rainfall is expected in south-eastern Nigeria and south-western Cameroon. The seasonal forecast also suggests that the start of the season will be early to normal, with shorter than normal dry spells during the first half of the rainy season across the Sahelo-Sudanian zone.

Source: World Food Programme

The International Committee of the Red Cross warns hundreds of millions of people in sub-Saharan Africa are going hungry due to conflict, climate shocks, and rising food prices triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The ICRC warns Africa’s food crisis is set to worsen. It says conflict and armed violence, failing harvests due to years of drought, and increases in food and other commodity prices are driving more people into extreme poverty and hunger.

A recent U.N. assessment estimates 346 million people on the continent face severe food insecurity, meaning one-quarter of the population does not have enough to eat.

The ICRC regional director for Africa, Patrick Youssef, says the situation is urgent. He warns many lives will be lost without a concerted effort by different actors to meet the challenges ahead. He says aid agencies, international financial institutions, and governments must collaborate to prevent the humanitarian crisis from becoming irreversible.

“As we look at 2023, we know that this will repeat itself. These climate shocks will repeat themselves; food insecurity will remain as acute as it is,” said Youssef. “It will not end with the calendar year. So, we all will better collectively be prepared for a long haul, for a situation, for a crisis that will certainly increase in size and volume.”

The ICRC reports the war in Ukraine has caused a sharp increase in fuel and fertilizer prices. That, it says, has added significant pressure on farmers, many of whom are weathering the combined impact of conflict and climate shocks.

Youssef says the Horn of Africa is most seriously affected. He notes, however, that other parts of Africa, from Mauritania to the Sahel to Lake Chad and, to a lesser extent, the Central African Republic, are suffering from the effects of the Ukraine crisis.

“Countries are equally, at least those who are, as you mentioned, so dependent on grains and wheat from Russia and Ukraine. Somalia is the worst—90 percent,” said Youssef. “But Nigeria has also a large dependency on that. Sudan and South Sudan as well. And, indeed the situation is extremely difficult for people that are inaccessible for humanitarian organizations, such as Somalia.”

Youssef says lack of access to people in areas affected by conflict and armed violence, such as Somalia and Burkina Faso raise the challenges to a different level.

The ICRC reports more than 35 armed conflicts are taking place on the continent and around 30 million people are internally displaced and refugees. The Swiss-based humanitarian agency says people uprooted from their homes are particularly vulnerable to extreme weather, fluctuation of food prices and hunger.

Source: Voice of America