Day: July 13, 2022

1. IMPACT ON FOOD ACCESS AND AVAILABILITY

Wheat and wheat products account for 25 percent of the average total cereal consumption in Eastern Africa with the highest consumption per capita in Djibouti, Eritrea and Sudan. Up to 84 percent of wheat demand in the region is met by imports. Considering reliance on direct imports from Russia and Ukraine, rising global prices since the start of the war and significant internal challenges. Sudan, Kenya, Ethiopia, Somalia and South Sudan are likely to be the hardest hit by the ongoing conflict.

The Ukrainian Government banned the export of wheat, oats, millet, buckwheat and some other food products to forestall a food crisis and stabilize the market. The partial ban on wheat and grains by Russia effective 15 March through 30 June (read here) will further squeeze global supplies which in effect will cause shortfalls due to reduced imports of wheat in net importer countries. The shortfall might be partially compensated by other alternative products which would lead to increased demand for substitute products, pushing up prices of other cereals in the region.

Based on WFP’s calculations, access and availability of wheat-based products in Sudan is worrisome as almost 50 percent of wheat-based products are supplied by Russia and Ukraine while wheat domestically produced and current stocks alone are estimated to cover the domestic wheat demand for three months only.

With over 70 percent of total global production of sunflower oil originating from Russia and Ukraine, destabilized export trade, delays, and higher shipping costs will directly impact the global supply of sunflower-seed oil and consequently prices, further deepening vegetable oil supply chain woes experienced in the previous year.

Russia and Ukraine supplied 78 percent and 95 percent of sunflower-seed oil imports to Kenya and Sudan respectively.

Sudan is likely to be more vulnerable to anticipated conflictinduced trade disruptions once existing stocks of sunflowerseed oil are depleted.

Source: World Food Programme

Highlights

By the end of June, the early stages of the rainfall season are coming to an end. So far, the 2022 rainy season in West Africa has been characterised by variable conditions. Over the course of the month, rainfall deficits were particularly pronounced during the first dekad of June and mainly affected the Central Sahel (western Niger, north-eastern Burkina Faso, eastern Mali), central Mali, eastern Guinea, western Cote d’Ivoire, south-western Cameroon and the Lake Chad Basin. Over the course of the month of June rainfall improved and offset some of the early season deficits recorded in the westernmost parts of West Africa (Senegal, southern Mauritania, Guinea-Bissau), as well as in central Burkina Faso, central Chad and central Niger. Coastal countries including Benin, Togo, Ghana, parts of Nigeria and southern Cameroon, as well as the south-eastern parts of the region (southern Chad and CAR) benefitted from favourable rainfall conditions in June.

Over the past two (2) months (May-June 2022), the conditions reflect the patterns observed in June, with overall mixed conditions across the region. While some areas including the western (Senegal, southern Mauritania, Guinea-Bissau), southern (Ghana, Benin, Togo) and south-eastern (southern Chad, CAR, southern Cameroon) parts of the region experienced above normal rainfall, the seasonal rains were normal to below normal in the rest of West Africa. Particularly in the Central Sahel, the Lake Chad Basin, northwestern Nigeria and western Cote d’Ivoire, moderate to severe rainfall deficits were recorded during this period. While especially in the Sahelian areas these are unlikely to significantly impact the agricultural season, which usually starts a bit later, the progression of the rains in these areas will need to be monitored closely.

Vegetation conditions are below average over a wide area in the Sahel from western Mali across Burkina Faso and northern Nigeria to southern Chad. Vegetation deficits are particularly pronounced in the eastern parts of the region (in northern (Benin, Togo and Nigeria) and southern Chad). In some areas, these conditions are expected to improve due to above normal rains received in mid to late June. On the other hand, better than normal vegetation conditions can be observed in Senegal, northern Niger and Chad, where above normal rainfall was received in early June.

The short-term forecasts indicate that by early-July (10 July 2022), seasonal rainfall will likely be above average in the western part of the region (in Senegal, southern Mauritania, Guinea Bissau) as well as over western Guinea, Sierra Leone, western Liberia as well as south-eastern Cameroon and CAR. This might partially offset the rainfall deficits in the western parts of the Sahel (Senegal, southern Mauritania, and Guinea Bissau) and the lead to more favorable conditions during the early stages of the growing season.

According to the 2022 PRESASS seasonal forecast, average to above average seasonal rainfall is expected in most of the Sahelian Belt (from Senegal through to Chad), including Cabo Verde. Average to below average rainfall is expected in south-eastern Nigeria and south-western Cameroon. The seasonal forecast also suggests that the start of the season will be early to normal, with shorter than normal dry spells during the first half of the rainy season across the Sahelo-Sudanian zone.

Source: World Food Programme